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350 Days and Counting…

...until the 19th World Cup finals kick off in South Africa, with 32 teams hunting down the biggest trophy in football: a solid gold, 14-inch statue depicting two men hoisting up the earth. And barring a collapse of quite epic proportions, England will be one of those teams, needing only one win from three to confirm their place.

If, or rather when, qualification is sealed, experience tells us the nation’s hopes and expectations will quickly balloon out of all proportion, inflated with hope, hot air and jingoistic guff. England will expect, and England will again overlook the fact that, statistically speaking, we will not win. In 15 finals over 59 years, only once has our national team had its hands on the World Cup – and even then we needed home advantage and the intervention of an Azerbaijani linesman. Bar an uncharacteristic foray to the semi finals in 1990, England’s involvement is usually overby the quarter finals, leaving a nation angry, drunk and seeking out scapegoats.

But this time, well, things look different. England have a highly decorated Italian at the helm, a man who has delivered a perfect record in qualification and turned a bunch of rich, self-absorbed footballers into a team of hungry athletes. So yes, England expects once again, only this time those expectations appear to be built on far firmer foundations. Scratch the surface, however, and it appears clear that there is still much work to be done. A year out and England – or Fabio Capello – have key questions to address; but, if Capello can find the answers, well then maybe, just maybe…

The Team

Do England finally have a team strong enough to win the World Cup

The Fifa World Cup trophy – that famous lump of 18-carat gold designed by Italian sculptor Silvio Gazzaniga in 1971 – depicts not one but two victorious players rising out of the trophy’s green malachite-encrusted base in celebration, holding the world aloft together. The imagery provides a fitting reminder for Fabio Capello’s England squad that to lift the World Cup requires not just individual brilliance, but also teamwork.

From Bobby Moore and Bobby Charlton to Wayne Rooney and Steven Gerrard, England have always produced gifted individuals. But England’s solitary 1966 World Cup success came about because Sir Alf Ramsey was the only manager who could forge those players into a team. As Steve McClaren discovered, a ‘golden generation’ means nothing unless the players are united by bonds of steel and an iron will.

Enter Fabio Capello. The Italian has rejuvenated England’s fraudulently underperforming players and marched them through seven victories in seven games to take them to the brink of qualification for South Africa 2010. Does Capello think he has finally built an effective ‘team’? “It is my job,” he smiles. “Always when I go to a different team, it is the same. You have to build a team, build confidence, build a system of play. Everything.”

The players seem to think so. “We needed more selflessness in the side,” says midfielder Frank Lampard. “We played as individuals too much in the past. To play as a team, you need to have humility and to be selfless. You need to work for your mate next to you, or to play out of position if that’s what is required.”

England United

Despite the cynicism surrounding England after 43 years of hurt, in players like Gerrard, Rooney and Lampard, Capello has at his disposal talents who would challenge for a place in any international side. Under Steve McClaren, the team failed to function as a unit – but to conclude that this English team was incapable of performing at the highest level was misleading.

After all, nine current England players have won the Champions League, with three players having made more than 100 appearances in the competition. The England squad against Kazakhstan and Andorra averaged 34.54 caps per player – making it more experienced than the most recent squads of both Italy and Spain.

Under Capello, we are starting to see signs that these talented, experienced individuals are starting to gel. The Italian has extracted the best out of Rooney – who has netted eight goals in qualifying – by playing him through the middle behind Emile Heskey, whose selflessness symbolises the new team ethic. “Before, Rooney didn’t go in front of goal,” said Capello. “Now you can see Rooney in positions to score whenever someone crosses.”

Capello also appears to be solving the midfield jigsaw. Although England often line up in a 4-4-2 formation, during a game it evolves into 4-2-3-1, with Lampard and Barry disciplined enough to stay central and allow Gerrard, Rooney and Walcott to wreak havoc behind the target man Heskey. All seem to have benefited from the tactical innovation.

There are other clues to the growing powers of the group. First, patience. It took time to break down Kazakhstan at Wembley in October, but England ran out comfortable 5-1 winners. Second, resilience. Ukraine’s late equaliser at Wembley in April would have crippled a weaker side, but England came back to win 2-1.

England’s players are also approaching their peak age. The average age of the French and Italian players in the 2006 World Cup final was 28, proving that World Cups remain an arena for experienced players. A year from South Africa, Capello’s last squad had an average age of 27.

Challenges Ahead

Capello knows there is much work to be done, including finalising his first-choice XI. While David James, Rio Ferdinand, John Terry and Ashley Cole seem secure, Capello will have to choose between the raw but gifted Glen Johnson and Wes Brown at right back. And, though the midfield of Gerrard, Lampard, Barry and Walcott is bringing results, a fine season from Joe Cole, Ashley Young or Aaron Lennon could alter the midfield set-up. Capello seems set on a Rooney-Heskey partnership up front, but the latter’s injury problems means other options will be necessary.

Second, is there sufficient back-up? England have used 26 players in qualifying, which suggests so. But, if the metatarsal curse strikes again, England need players capable of stepping up. The injury-prone pairing of Terry and Ferdinand have only played together in five of Capello’s 15 games, and Capello will want to see more accomplished performances from understudies like Matthew Upson and Joleon Lescott.

But the big question is whether or not this developing England team can perform against the world’s best. The truth is, England have not beaten Spain since 2001, Italy since 1997, Holland since 1996 and Brazil since 1990. “I think we are turning into the confident team I hoped we would become” says Capello. “But we are only in the middle of our work.”

The Tactics

Under Fabio Capello, Is this England team tactically astute enough to win a World Cup next Summer?

These seven secrets of modern international football will go a long way to answering that question…

PLAY TO YOUR STRENGTHS
World champions Italy and European champions Spain prospered with a patient but incisive passing game, but there is more than one way to win a World Cup. “If you want to play tennis like Rafael Nadal, you can’t,” says Capello, who relishes the power and pace of the English game. “You have to find a way to play according to the players you have in the squad.” Capello appears to be honing a 4-2-3-1 system, with Gareth Barry and Frank Lampard bossing the central midfield, freeing up Wayne Rooney, Steven Gerrard and Theo Walcott to cause mayhem in the slipstream created by Emile Heskey’s workrate.

BE FLEXIBLE
Under Sven-Goran Eriksson in 2002 and 2006, England were reliant on the 4-4-2 formation and were passed off the park by Brazil and Portugal. When Michael Owen hobbled off injured, England looked lost with their new 4-5-1 formation. In contrast, the World Cup-winning Brazilian team of 2002 switched effortlessly between a 5-4-1 and 3-4-2-1 formation – and, in 2006, Italy altered from a 4-3-3 to a 4-5-1, according to circumstance. This campaign has seen Capello experiment with 4-4-2, 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3 systems. “Never stick to only one system,” says Capello, reassuringly. “That is the biggest mistake you can make.”

TEAM GAME
In the 2002 World Cup, strikers scored more than 55 per cent of the goals. In Euro 2008, only 40 per cent of goals came from strikers, indicating the growing importance of attacking midfielders in modern international football. In the 2006 World Cup, 10 different players scored for champions Italy. “The manager often stresses that we’ve got in really good wide positions, and then he freezes the frame and there are only two people in the box,” says John Terry. “He wants people busting their guts to get on the end of things.”

BUILD FROM THE BACK
Defences win World Cups. In the 2006 World Cup, Italy’s defence conceded just two goals in the finals. In 2002, the Brazilians conceded just four times on their way to victory, and in 1998 winners France conceded only two goals. In 1966, England kept a clean sheet up to the semi finals. England have conceded only four goals in qualifying for World Cup 2010, but have leaked goals to the likes of Belarus and Kazakhstan.

QUICK BREAKS
In the 2002 World Cup, only 20 per cent of goals scored in open play came from counter-attacks, but in Euro 2008 that figure had risen to 46 per cent, clearly showing the potency of quick, penetrative midfield play. More than 50 per cent of goals came from crosses, cutbacks and diagonals near the byline, highlighting the value of width. Theo Walcott, Joe Cole, Ashley Young and Aaron Lennon could be vital.

MORE PASSING
With more accurate and intelligent passing, fewer goals and less aerial play, international football rewards patience over the fast-paced Premier League style. “We’re not on Spain’s level,” says captain John Terry. “The manager hates it when we play the long ball. We have got the players to get the ball down and play.”

CLINICAL FINISHING
With international teams better prepared than ever, the World Cup finals have seen a gradual decline in the number of goals scored per game. England will not only need to demonstrate patience, but also be clinical when the chances do arrive. Unlike in the Premier League, the players are unlikely to get a second chance – so their finishing will have to be top notch.

The Mentality

PART I

UNDER PREVIOUS ENGLAND MANAGERS, PLAYERS WERE FREE TO COME AND GO AS THEY PLEASED, AGENTS ROAMED THE TEAM HQ AND THE WAGS RAN AMOK THROUGH BADEN-BADEN. HAS FABIO CAPELLO INSTILLED A MORE PROFESSIONAL MENTALITY IN HIS SQUAD?

Shaun Custis, chief football writer at The Sun, has covered the England team since 1997 and is better placed than most to answer the question

“Fabio Capello isn’t some revolutionary who’s come in and rewritten everything. What he demands of the players is all very simple; toe the line, do a job of work and we’ll all get our rewards – and, if you’re not prepared to knuckle down, you’ll be out on your ear.

I’ve not known an England manager to have the respect Capello has from his players, and that is largely because his track record is so impressive. Look at who went before him: Glenn Hoddle had discipline, but struggled with man-management and didn’t always have the total respect of the players; Kevin Keegan bashed the chairs, but everyone knew that, tactically, he wasn’t up to it; Sven-Goran Eriksson’s laidback style was popular, but he didn’t do a lot on the training pitch and gave the players free rein to do what they wanted; and Steve McClaren had neither the background nor the CV for the players to look up to him.

Capello has it all, and so the players are prepared to knuckle down for him. They do genuinely seem to be enjoying the new regime, although much of that is down to the fact that they’re winning games. It isn’t a holiday, but it also isn’t the boot camp some people have made it out to be. The players are there to work hard, and they now know that, but under Capello they occasionally get out for a game of golf or get the odd afternoon off. It’s certainly a more focused England than in the past – if they fail, it won’t be due to their mentality.

The fact the WAGs will be in South Africa is no reflection on Capello because, as far as I’m aware, there isn’t a law banning wives and girlfriends from being there. No England manager can stop them from staying in a town near the team’s camp, so Capello will instead concentrate on the things in his control.

He’s building a team capable of winning the World Cup, and they’re heading in the right direction. I don’t think they’ll win it, because Spain are so much further on than we are. We’ve missed the chance to win it when we had the best players, and now another team has come along and taken it – and done so by showing that football’s played a different way. They also seem to have the strength in depth that England lack – lose a couple of key men and we’ll be in big trouble. And, worryingly, I think Spain are already in our heads. The media and the players talked a lot about them in the lead up to the Kazakhstan game... ‘Oh, Spain are the favourites, no pressure on us’. The same thing happened with Brazil ahead of 2002; we talked them up as the favourites, and they beat us. Then we talked about how good Portugal were, and they beat us twice. It’s a worrying omen, but the danger is that we’re building Spain up to the point where we start fearing them. We saw in the friendly with Spain how far ahead of us they are, and I just don’t see massive technical improvements in the way we play. If Capello could find a goalscoring Heskey, he’d be much happier with life; he hasn’t found him yet, though – and, until he does, he’ll be concerned.”

CAPELLO’S RULES

*Players agents and WAGs can no longer visit the team hotel
*Players can only use mobile phones in their rooms
*Players cannot be late for meals and must now eat together
*Players cannot order room service
*Players must wear official England clothing at lunch and dinner
*Players must wear team blazers when in public
*Players must be referred to by their surnames only, no nicknames
*Players cannot play their Playstations

PART II

THIS GENERATION OF ENGLAND FOOTBALLERS HAVE NEVER GONE BEYOND THE QUARTER FINALS OF A MAJOR TOURNAMENT. IS THERE A MENTAL BARRIER THEY NEED TO GET OVER BEFORE THEY CAN WIN THE WORLD CUP – AND, IF SO, HOW?

Between 2002 and 2006, an England team under Sven-Goran Eriksson reached three straight quarter finals, going down once to Brazil before falling twice to Portugal on penalties.

The shoot-out defeats stand out a mile but, to sports psychologists, that Brazil loss is where the real interest lies. “Research shows distinct differences between the psychological profiles of individuals and teams that gain repeated success and those that don’t,” explains football psychologist Keith Power.

Quite. England went 1-0 up in that quarter final but, faced with opposition that had featured in the previous two World Cup finals, failed to hang on to the advantage and then looked incapable of responding after going behind. To the casual observer, let alone the seasoned shrink, it looked like a team unsure of how to win at the top level playing against one that knew exactly what was required.

“That experience of consistently competing at the highest level is one of the key determining factors of success,” says Power. “It’s quite a disadvantage not to have experienced it before, and this is one of the big challenges facing this England team going into the World Cup.”

The obvious question, then, is what Fabio Capello can do to turn a team of quarter-final losers into one full of World Cup winners.

“Capello’s done unbelievably well, and word is that the players have great admiration for him as a coach,” says Power. “But, come the World Cup, the level of mental preparation required is huge; Capello will continue in his authoritarian style, but there needs to be a clarity of expectation with regards to each man’s personal responsibility and then, beyond that, a collective responsibility. For the World Cup, this message has to be even more defined.”

The implication is that mental toughness is the result of disciplined preparation. If so, then this is a squad in need of a leader who’s going to work them hard – it’s difficult to think of a man more suited to the task than Capello.

The Penalties

WILL PENALTIES ONCE AGAIN BE ENGLAND’S UNDOING?

With England having been beaten on penalties in three of the last five major tournaments at which they have appeared, Fabio Capello will need to address the problems we have from 12 yards. “If England can master the psychological factors involved in taking penalties, they’ll stand a much better chance of coming through a shoot-out,” says football psychologist Keith Power, who offers Mr Capello the following advice...

Practise
“Penalties are like golf shots. The more you practise how and where you’re going to put the ball, the more natural it feels when you play the shot. The more you practise, the better you get – and the more confident you feel.”

Structure the kickers
“Research shows you need your best penalty-takers further back in the list. With the first kick, there’s an 87 per cent success rate; by the fourth it’s down to 72 per cent, then in sudden death it’s 64 per cent.”

Keep JT off the list
“As you’d probably expect, statistics also show that defenders have a much lower success rate with penalties than midfielders and strikers – this needs to be taken into account when choosing who steps up.”

Aim High
“Statistically, putting the ball down the middle has a success rate of about 55 per cent, whereas for the top corners it’s 94-95 per cent. Obviously the margin for error diminishes, but if England put the ball in the right places it will pay off.”

Pick David James
“The average goalkeeper saves 18 per cent of penalties. David James is at about 65 per cent, for the simple reason that his attention to detail is superb. We often lose sight of the fact that the goalkeeper is as vital as the kickers.”

The Discipline

PASSION IS SOMETHING THE WORLD HAS COME TO EXPECT FROM ENGLAND, BUT TOO OFTEN ILL DISCIPLINE HAS PUT THE TEAM ON THE BACK FOOT AND SUBSEQUENTLY OUT OF THE MAJOR TOURNAMENTS. IS THERE EVIDENCE THAT FABIO CAPELLO HAS CHANGED THIS, AND THAT ENGLAND CAN BE MORE COMPOSED IN THE CAULDRON OF A WORLD CUP?

If the past three World Cups are anything to go by, the individual moments on which England’s 2010 chances will hinge are going to involve discipline – or, rather, the lack of it.

In 2002 in Japan, it was England’s failure to capitalise on the sending-off of Brazil’s Ronaldinho that saw them whimper out in the quarter finals. But, more importantly, it was the respective 1998 and 2006 dismissals of David Beckham (against Argentina) and Wayne Rooney (Portugal) that many still believe contributed to our eventual eliminations.

In both cases, the argument goes that, with Beckham and Rooney on the pitch for 90 minutes, England would have had enough to see off their opponents and duly progress. Far from watertight, of course, but there’s no doubting the fact that our chances of World Cup glory in South Africa will be greatly enhanced by keeping 11 men on the pitch.

So, has Fabio Capello done anything to increase the chances of this? Well, the Italian’s 15 games in charge have produced not a single red and only 12 yellows. The ratio of less than one booking a game could be explained by the relative paucity of the opponents, but it’s worth pointing out that, in qualifying for Euro 2008, only two nations – France and Croatia – averaged less than one booking a match. Poor opponents or not, the stats are impressive.

While Capello’s figures compare only mildly favourably with those of Steve McClaren (16 yellows in his final 15 games), the personnel involved tell a different story. Under Capello, the chief culprits are Beckham and Gareth Barry, experienced midfielders unlikely to lose their heads in the heat of battle; under McClaren, the bad boys were Rooney and the all-too-volatile Ashley Cole, who picked up four bookings in five games from September 2006 to March 2007.

That Rooney and Cole, both integral to Capello’s plans, have picked up one booking between them during the Italian’s tenure speaks volumes – the coach has clearly identified the men he needs to keep a leash on, and told them in no uncertain terms. “Mr Capello has a very strong aura about him, a confidence,” said Frank Lampard in March. It’s a confidence the entire squad are buying into.

Discipline isn’t only about cards, however; go back to those 1998 and 2002 World Cup exits, and both Argentina and Brazil were gifted goals from soft free-kicks given away in and around the England penalty area. There’ll be no Paul Scholes in South Africa, which will help, but a team committing few fouls protects itself from vulnerable positions. It’s no coincidence that, in Euro 2008 qualifying, the eventual tournament winners Spain averaged only seven fouls per game – fewer than any other nation.

The link is clear, and should leave Capello in no doubt as to what he must do in order to make England genuine contenders. Thankfully, if his impact on Masters Rooney and Cole is anything to go, he’s got the message already.

The Rivals

SHOULD ENGLAND FEAR ANY TEAM IN SOUTH AFRICA?

The short answer to this, of course, is yes. Any of the 32 teams present in South Africa is capable of ending England’s World Cup, even the teams plucked from the CONCACAF or Oceania zones to fill spaces and tick boxes. However, history – backed up by statistics and common sense – point to the winner coming from a select band of six teams: Spain, Brazil, Argentina, Italy, France and Germany, who between them have won 16 of the 18 World Cups. So the real question here is, how many of the big guns will actually make it to South Africa – and should England fear any of them?

SPAIN
Spain are within touching distance of the finals, with six wins in six games in qualifying and an unbeaten streak now stretching back 35 games to November 2006. The Spanish broke their major tournament duck with last summer’s European Championship win, and have spent the qualifying campaign building momentum and fine-tuning the most fluid team in world football. During that 35-game unbeaten run, Spain have scored 73 times and conceded 11, statistics that should strike fear into the heart of any non-Spaniard. That their best World Cup finish remains a fourth place in 1950 could raise concerns, as could the fact they appear to be in the form of their lives now – a year too soon – but Spain’s quality, strength in depth and barely concealed confidence will make them the team to beat next summer. And having witnessed the way they so effortlessly outmanoeuvred his England team in February will give Fabio Capello sleepless nights between now and next summer.

ARGENTINA
Always a favourite come the World Cup finals, even though it’s now 23 years since Argentina last hoisted the gold trophy and two decades since they last graced a final – and on both occasions they were carried by the prodigious talents of Diego Maradona, now the Argentina manager. In a 10-team group where the top four teams qualify automatically, Argentina occupy the fourth and final slot. They sit two points ahead of Ecuador with four games left, but their next game is against Brazil, who themselves can qualify if they win – that fixture could make or break Argentina’s hopes of qualifying and determine El Diego’s future.

GERMANY
Despite remaining a pale imitation of the team that dominated football in the ’70s, ’80s and ’90s, the Germans remain a fearsome proposition. Perhaps less efficient than in recent years, they still finished third at the 2006 World Cup and second to Spain in Euro 2008 – and all this with Miroslav Klose and Lukas Podolski as their main goal threats. Can they go one better? Sadly, yes, and as they’re coasting to qualification at the top of Group 4, with five wins and a draw, they’ll be present come next June.

ITALY
Under Marcello Lippi, the Azzurri top Group 8, a point ahead of the Republic of Ireland but with a game in hand. With their penultimate qualifying game a potential group decider against the Republic this October, that game in hand may be crucial. Four wins and two draws represents slow progress for the world champions, but they qualified under the radar for Germany 2006 so won’t be worried.

FRANCE
With respect to the hapless Portugal, who are all but out in shambolic fashion under Carlos Queiroz, Europe’s biggest casualties of this qualifying campaign could be the French. They are a team in transition who are eight points behind leaders Serbia in Group 7, and just a single point ahead of the mighty Lithuanians. Les Bleus would point out that they have two games in hand over both, but two unimpressive single-goal struggles against the Lithuanians, a porous defence and an impotent attack suggest early elimination. Should they squeeze through, England would feel confident facing them.

BRAZIL
The most decorated team in world football are making light work of qualifying for 2010. Beaten just once in 14 qualifying games, with seven wins and six draws, Brazil need one more victory to confirm their place in South Africa. Their success has been based on goals, 25 so far, but they have found a new resolve at the back and conceded only six. Another team to give Mr Capello sleepless nights.